Al Najma 0–1 East Riffa: Result & Stats

Al Najma

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

East Riffa

3/13/2021

Premier League · Round 12Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Al Najma34%

×Draw26%

East Riffa40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al NajmaExpected goals in this matchEast Riffa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.35

Al Najma

1.23

East Riffa

1.35

East Riffa creates 10% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 61 away

1.40

creates per match

1.10

1.60

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Al Najma

1.40

East Riffa

1.10

allows per match

Al Najma

1.60

East Riffa

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Najma+0.00on par

East Riffa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najma ↓

East Riffa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al Najma or draw

60%

Al Najma or East Riffa

74%

Draw or East Riffa

66%

Winning margin

Al Najma wins by 2+

14%

East Riffa wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Al Najma 1+ goals

71%

Al Najma 2+ goals

35%

Al Najma 3+ goals

13%

East Riffa 1+ goals

74%

East Riffa 2+ goals

39%

East Riffa 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al Najma (draw refunded)

46%

East Riffa (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najma at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 62 matches

East Riffa away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najma attack 1.40 + East Riffa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

East Riffa attack 1.10 + Al Najma defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Najma scores more

34%

level

26%

East Riffa scores more

40%

East Riffa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "East Riffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff