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Al Najaf vs Naft — Iraqi League 2020

Al Najaf
Al Najaf
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Naft
Naft
12/18/2020Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 9Al Najaf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Al Najaf38%
×Draw31%
Naft32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Najaf
1.06
Naft
0.95

Al Najaf creates 12% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 113 away

creates per match

Al Najaf
1.17
Naft
0.84

allows per match

Al Najaf
1.05
Naft
0.96

finishing

Al Najaf+0.00on par
Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najaf ↓

Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Najaf or draw
68%
Al Najaf or Naft
69%
Draw or Naft
62%

Winning margin

Al Najaf wins by 2+
15%
Naft wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Najaf 1+ goals
65%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
29%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
9%
Naft 1+ goals
61%
Naft 2+ goals
25%
Naft 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Najaf (draw refunded)
54%
Naft (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najaf at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

Naft away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najaf attack 1.17 + Naft defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.06

Naft attack 0.84 + Al Najaf defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Najaf scores more
38%
level
31%
Naft scores more
32%

Al Najaf at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Najaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Najaf 2 – 0 Naft

Al Najaf beat Naft 2-0 in Iraqi League on December 18, 2020.

The match was played at Al Najaf Stadium in Najaf.