Al Najaf 1–0 Al Minaa Basra: Result & Stats

Al Najaf

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Minaa Basra

11/23/2020

Iraqi League · Round 4Karbala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Al Najaf44%

×Draw28%

Al Minaa Basra28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al NajafExpected goals in this matchAl Minaa Basra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.96

Al Najaf

1.28

Al Minaa Basra

0.96

Al Najaf creates 33% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 93 away

1.17

creates per match

0.86

1.05

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Al Najaf

1.17

Al Minaa Basra

0.86

allows per match

Al Najaf

1.05

Al Minaa Basra

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Najaf+0.00on par

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najaf ↓

Al Minaa Basra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Najaf or draw

72%

Al Najaf or Al Minaa Basra

72%

Draw or Al Minaa Basra

56%

Winning margin

Al Najaf wins by 2+

20%

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Najaf 1+ goals

72%

Al Najaf 2+ goals

37%

Al Najaf 3+ goals

14%

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals

62%

Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals

25%

Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Najaf (draw refunded)

61%

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najaf at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najaf attack 1.17 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.86 + Al Najaf defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Najaf scores more

44%

level

28%

Al Minaa Basra scores more

28%

Al Najaf at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Najaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff