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Al Minaa Basra vs Al Najaf — Iraqi League 2020

Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Najaf
Al Najaf
3/11/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 23Al Faihaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Al Minaa Basra35%
×Draw30%
Al Najaf35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Minaa Basra
1.08
Al Najaf
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 112 away

creates per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.16
Al Najaf
0.97

allows per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.17
Al Najaf
1.00

finishing

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par
Al Najaf+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Minaa Basra ↓

Al Najaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Minaa Basra or draw
65%
Al Minaa Basra or Al Najaf
70%
Draw or Al Najaf
65%

Winning margin

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
14%
Al Najaf wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
66%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
29%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
10%
Al Najaf 1+ goals
66%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
29%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
50%
Al Najaf (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Minaa Basra at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Al Najaf away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Minaa Basra attack 1.16 + Al Najaf defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Al Najaf attack 0.97 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Al Minaa Basra scores more
35%
level
30%
Al Najaf scores more
35%

Al Minaa Basra at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Al Minaa Basra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Minaa Basra 0–2 Al Najaf

Al Najaf beat Al Minaa Basra 2-0 in Iraqi League on March 11, 2021.

The match was played at Al Faihaa Stadium in Basra.