Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Minaa Basra vs Al Kahrabaa — Iraqi League 2020

Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
10/27/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 1Basra Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Al Minaa Basra39%
×Draw28%
Al Kahrabaa33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Minaa Basra
1.21
Al Kahrabaa
1.10

Al Minaa Basra creates 10% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 108 away

creates per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.16
Al Kahrabaa
1.03

allows per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.17
Al Kahrabaa
1.26

finishing

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par
Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Minaa Basra ↓

Al Kahrabaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Minaa Basra or draw
67%
Al Minaa Basra or Al Kahrabaa
72%
Draw or Al Kahrabaa
61%

Winning margin

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
17%
Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
70%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
34%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
12%
Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
67%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
30%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
54%
Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Minaa Basra at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Al Kahrabaa away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Minaa Basra attack 1.16 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.03 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Minaa Basra scores more
39%
level
28%
Al Kahrabaa scores more
33%

Al Minaa Basra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Minaa Basra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Minaa Basra 1–3 Al Kahrabaa

Al Kahrabaa beat Al Minaa Basra 3-1 in Iraqi League on October 27, 2023.

The match was played at Basra Sport City Stadium in Basra.