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Al Merreikh vs Hilal Obayed — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Merreikh
Al Merreikh
FT
3 – 1
Hilal Obayed
Hilal Obayed
6/25/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Championship Round - 3Al-Merreikh Stadium (Omdurman)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Al Merreikh61%
×Draw24%
Hilal Obayed15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Merreikh
1.64
Hilal Obayed
0.65

Al Merreikh creates 152% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 56 away

creates per match

Al Merreikh
1.95
Hilal Obayed
0.86

allows per match

Al Merreikh
0.44
Hilal Obayed
1.32

finishing

Al Merreikh+0.00on par
Hilal Obayed+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Merreikh ↓

Hilal Obayed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Merreikh or draw
85%
Al Merreikh or Hilal Obayed
76%
Draw or Hilal Obayed
39%

Winning margin

Al Merreikh wins by 2+
34%
Hilal Obayed wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al Merreikh 1+ goals
81%
Al Merreikh 2+ goals
49%
Al Merreikh 3+ goals
23%
Hilal Obayed 1+ goals
48%
Hilal Obayed 2+ goals
14%
Hilal Obayed 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Merreikh (draw refunded)
81%
Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Merreikh at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.44 · 78 matches

Hilal Obayed away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Merreikh attack 1.95 + Hilal Obayed defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.64

Hilal Obayed attack 0.86 + Al Merreikh defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Al Merreikh scores more
61%
level
24%
Hilal Obayed scores more
15%

Al Merreikh at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Merreikh vs Hilal Obayed

Al Merreikh beat Hilal Obayed 3-1 in Sudani Premier League on June 25, 2019.

The match was played at Al-Merreikh Stadium (Omdurman).