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Al Merreikh vs Al Ahli Khartoum — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Merreikh
Al Merreikh
FT
2 – 2
Al Ahli Khartoum
Al Ahli Khartoum
2/6/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 11Al-Merreikh Stadium (Omdurman)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Al Merreikh61%
×Draw25%
Al Ahli Khartoum14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Merreikh
1.55
Al Ahli Khartoum
0.58

Al Merreikh creates 167% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 81 away

creates per match

Al Merreikh
1.95
Al Ahli Khartoum
0.73

allows per match

Al Merreikh
0.44
Al Ahli Khartoum
1.16

finishing

Al Merreikh+0.00on par
Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Merreikh ↓

Al Ahli Khartoum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Merreikh or draw
86%
Al Merreikh or Al Ahli Khartoum
75%
Draw or Al Ahli Khartoum
39%

Winning margin

Al Merreikh wins by 2+
33%
Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al Merreikh 1+ goals
79%
Al Merreikh 2+ goals
46%
Al Merreikh 3+ goals
20%
Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals
44%
Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals
12%
Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Al Merreikh (draw refunded)
82%
Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Merreikh at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.44 · 78 matches

Al Ahli Khartoum away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Merreikh attack 1.95 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.55

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 0.73 + Al Merreikh defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Al Merreikh scores more
61%
level
25%
Al Ahli Khartoum scores more
14%

Al Merreikh at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Merreikh 2 – 2 Al Ahli Khartoum

Al Merreikh and Al Ahli Khartoum drew 2-2 in Sudani Premier League on February 6, 2019.

The match was played at Al-Merreikh Stadium (Omdurman).