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Al Malaab El Libby vs Al-Madina — Premier League 2019

Al Malaab El Libby
Al Malaab El Libby
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Madina
Al-Madina
1/2/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Al Malaab El Libby38%
×Draw31%
Al-Madina31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Malaab El Libby
1.07
Al-Madina
0.93

Al Malaab El Libby creates 15% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 64 away

creates per match

Al Malaab El Libby
0.78
Al-Madina
0.86

allows per match

Al Malaab El Libby
1.00
Al-Madina
1.36

finishing

Al Malaab El Libby+0.00on par
Al-Madina+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Malaab El Libby ↓

Al-Madina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Malaab El Libby or draw
69%
Al Malaab El Libby or Al-Madina
69%
Draw or Al-Madina
62%

Winning margin

Al Malaab El Libby wins by 2+
15%
Al-Madina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Malaab El Libby 1+ goals
66%
Al Malaab El Libby 2+ goals
29%
Al Malaab El Libby 3+ goals
9%
Al-Madina 1+ goals
61%
Al-Madina 2+ goals
24%
Al-Madina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Malaab El Libby (draw refunded)
55%
Al-Madina (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Malaab El Libby at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

Al-Madina away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Malaab El Libby attack 0.78 + Al-Madina defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.07

Al-Madina attack 0.86 + Al Malaab El Libby defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Malaab El Libby scores more
38%
level
31%
Al-Madina scores more
31%

Al Malaab El Libby at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Malaab El Libby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Malaab El Libby 1–1 Al-Madina

Al Malaab El Libby and Al-Madina drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 2, 2024.