Al-Madina 1–1 Al Ahli Tripoli: Result & Stats

Al-Madina

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Ahli Tripoli

12/16/2022

Premier League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Al-Madina27%

×Draw30%

Al Ahli Tripoli43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-MadinaExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Tripoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.15

Al-Madina

0.85

Al Ahli Tripoli

1.15

Al Ahli Tripoli creates 35% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 72 away

1.24

creates per match

1.35

0.94

allows per match

0.46

creates per match

Al-Madina

1.24

Al Ahli Tripoli

1.35

allows per match

Al-Madina

0.94

Al Ahli Tripoli

0.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Madina+0.00on par

Al Ahli Tripoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Madina ↓

Al Ahli Tripoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–116%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al-Madina or draw

57%

Al-Madina or Al Ahli Tripoli

70%

Draw or Al Ahli Tripoli

73%

Winning margin

Al-Madina wins by 2+

9%

Al Ahli Tripoli wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Al-Madina 1+ goals

57%

Al-Madina 2+ goals

21%

Al-Madina 3+ goals

5%

Al Ahli Tripoli 1+ goals

68%

Al Ahli Tripoli 2+ goals

32%

Al Ahli Tripoli 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al-Madina (draw refunded)

39%

Al Ahli Tripoli (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Madina at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 66 matches

Al Ahli Tripoli away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Madina attack 1.24 + Al Ahli Tripoli defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.85

Al Ahli Tripoli attack 1.35 + Al-Madina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al-Madina scores more

27%

level

30%

Al Ahli Tripoli scores more

43%

Al Ahli Tripoli at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Ahli Tripoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff