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Al Kuwait vs Al Fahaheel — Premier League 2019

Al Kuwait
Al Kuwait
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Fahaheel
Al Fahaheel
11/2/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Kuwait Sporting Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Al Kuwait64%
×Draw20%
Al Fahaheel16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kuwait
2.19
Al Fahaheel
1.01

Al Kuwait creates 117% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 75 away

creates per match

Al Kuwait
2.63
Al Fahaheel
1.28

allows per match

Al Kuwait
0.74
Al Fahaheel
1.76

finishing

Al Kuwait+0.00on par
Al Fahaheel+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kuwait ↓

Al Fahaheel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Al Kuwait or draw
84%
Al Kuwait or Al Fahaheel
80%
Draw or Al Fahaheel
36%

Winning margin

Al Kuwait wins by 2+
41%
Al Fahaheel wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Kuwait 1+ goals
89%
Al Kuwait 2+ goals
64%
Al Kuwait 3+ goals
37%
Al Fahaheel 1+ goals
64%
Al Fahaheel 2+ goals
27%
Al Fahaheel 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Kuwait (draw refunded)
80%
Al Fahaheel (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kuwait at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.74 · 88 matches

Al Fahaheel away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.76 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kuwait attack 2.63 + Al Fahaheel defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.19

Al Fahaheel attack 1.28 + Al Kuwait defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Al Kuwait scores more
64%
level
20%
Al Fahaheel scores more
16%

Al Kuwait at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Al Kuwait will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Kuwait 4–1 Al Fahaheel

Al Kuwait beat Al Fahaheel 4-1 in Premier League on November 2, 2023.

The match was played at Kuwait Sporting Club Stadium in Kuwait City.