Al Kuwait 2–1 Al Arabi: Result & Stats

Al Kuwait

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al Arabi

3/3/2024

Premier League · Round 17Jaber Al-Ahmad International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Al Kuwait50%

×Draw23%

Al Arabi27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al KuwaitExpected goals in this matchAl Arabi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.32

Al Kuwait

1.87

Al Arabi

1.32

Al Kuwait creates 42% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 84 away

2.63

creates per match

1.90

0.74

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Al Kuwait

2.63

Al Arabi

1.90

allows per match

Al Kuwait

0.74

Al Arabi

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Kuwait+0.00on par

Al Arabi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kuwait ↓

Al Arabi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Al Kuwait or draw

73%

Al Kuwait or Al Arabi

77%

Draw or Al Arabi

50%

Winning margin

Al Kuwait wins by 2+

28%

Al Arabi wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al Kuwait 1+ goals

85%

Al Kuwait 2+ goals

56%

Al Kuwait 3+ goals

29%

Al Arabi 1+ goals

73%

Al Arabi 2+ goals

38%

Al Arabi 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al Kuwait (draw refunded)

65%

Al Arabi (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kuwait at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.74 · 88 matches

Al Arabi away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.11 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kuwait attack 2.63 + Al Arabi defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.87

Al Arabi attack 1.90 + Al Kuwait defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Kuwait scores more

50%

level

23%

Al Arabi scores more

27%

Al Kuwait at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Kuwait will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff