Al Khartoum 1–3 Al Merreikh: Result & Stats

Al Khartoum

FT

1 – 3

Al Merreikh

1/18/2019

Sudani Premier League · Round 8Khartoum Stadium (Khartoum)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Al Khartoum28%

×Draw27%

Al Merreikh45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al KhartoumExpected goals in this matchAl Merreikh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.40

Al Khartoum

1.04

Al Merreikh

1.40

Al Merreikh creates 35% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 65 away

1.46

creates per match

1.68

1.13

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Al Khartoum

1.46

Al Merreikh

1.68

allows per match

Al Khartoum

1.13

Al Merreikh

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Khartoum+0.00on par

Al Merreikh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khartoum ↓

Al Merreikh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al Khartoum or draw

55%

Al Khartoum or Al Merreikh

73%

Draw or Al Merreikh

72%

Winning margin

Al Khartoum wins by 2+

10%

Al Merreikh wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Al Khartoum 1+ goals

65%

Al Khartoum 2+ goals

28%

Al Khartoum 3+ goals

9%

Al Merreikh 1+ goals

75%

Al Merreikh 2+ goals

41%

Al Merreikh 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Al Khartoum (draw refunded)

38%

Al Merreikh (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khartoum at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 56 matches

Al Merreikh away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.62 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khartoum attack 1.46 + Al Merreikh defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.04

Al Merreikh attack 1.68 + Al Khartoum defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Khartoum scores more

28%

level

27%

Al Merreikh scores more

45%

Al Merreikh at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff