Al Khartoum 2–1 Al Ahli Khartoum: Result & Stats

Al Khartoum

FT

2 – 1

Al Ahli Khartoum

12/18/2018

Sudani Premier League · Round 5Khartoum Stadium (Khartoum)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Al Khartoum45%

×Draw28%

Al Ahli Khartoum27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al KhartoumExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Khartoum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.93

Al Khartoum

1.31

Al Ahli Khartoum

0.93

Al Khartoum creates 41% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 81 away

1.46

creates per match

0.73

1.13

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Al Khartoum

1.46

Al Ahli Khartoum

0.73

allows per match

Al Khartoum

1.13

Al Ahli Khartoum

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Khartoum+0.00on par

Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khartoum ↓

Al Ahli Khartoum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Khartoum or draw

73%

Al Khartoum or Al Ahli Khartoum

72%

Draw or Al Ahli Khartoum

55%

Winning margin

Al Khartoum wins by 2+

21%

Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al Khartoum 1+ goals

73%

Al Khartoum 2+ goals

38%

Al Khartoum 3+ goals

14%

Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals

61%

Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals

24%

Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Khartoum (draw refunded)

63%

Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khartoum at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 56 matches

Al Ahli Khartoum away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khartoum attack 1.46 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 0.73 + Al Khartoum defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Khartoum scores more

45%

level

28%

Al Ahli Khartoum scores more

27%

Al Khartoum at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Khartoum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff