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Al Karkh vs Naft Al-Wasat — Iraqi League 2020

Al Karkh
Al Karkh
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Naft Al-Wasat
Naft Al-Wasat
10/15/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 4Al-Karkh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Al Karkh37%
×Draw30%
Naft Al-Wasat34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karkh
1.10
Naft Al-Wasat
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 73 away

creates per match

Al Karkh
1.05
Naft Al-Wasat
0.96

allows per match

Al Karkh
1.14
Naft Al-Wasat
1.16

finishing

Al Karkh+0.00on par
Naft Al-Wasat+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karkh ↓

Naft Al-Wasat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Karkh or draw
66%
Al Karkh or Naft Al-Wasat
70%
Draw or Naft Al-Wasat
63%

Winning margin

Al Karkh wins by 2+
15%
Naft Al-Wasat wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Karkh 1+ goals
67%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
30%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
10%
Naft Al-Wasat 1+ goals
65%
Naft Al-Wasat 2+ goals
28%
Naft Al-Wasat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Karkh (draw refunded)
52%
Naft Al-Wasat (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karkh at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

Naft Al-Wasat away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karkh attack 1.05 + Naft Al-Wasat defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Naft Al-Wasat attack 0.96 + Al Karkh defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Karkh scores more
37%
level
30%
Naft Al-Wasat scores more
34%

Al Karkh at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Karkh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Karkh 0–1 Naft Al-Wasat

Naft Al-Wasat beat Al Karkh 1-0 in Iraqi League on October 15, 2021.

The match was played at Al-Karkh Stadium in Bagdad.