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Al Karkh vs Al Talaba — Iraqi League 2020

Al Karkh
Al Karkh
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al Talaba
Al Talaba
1/6/2022Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 17Al-Karkh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Al Karkh32%
×Draw29%
Al Talaba39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karkh
1.01
Al Talaba
1.14

Al Talaba creates 13% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

Al Karkh
1.05
Al Talaba
1.14

allows per match

Al Karkh
1.14
Al Talaba
0.97

finishing

Al Karkh+0.00on par
Al Talaba+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karkh ↓

Al Talaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Karkh or draw
61%
Al Karkh or Al Talaba
71%
Draw or Al Talaba
68%

Winning margin

Al Karkh wins by 2+
12%
Al Talaba wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Karkh 1+ goals
64%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
27%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
8%
Al Talaba 1+ goals
68%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
32%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Karkh (draw refunded)
45%
Al Talaba (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karkh at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

Al Talaba away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karkh attack 1.05 + Al Talaba defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Al Talaba attack 1.14 + Al Karkh defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Karkh scores more
32%
level
29%
Al Talaba scores more
39%

Al Talaba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Karkh 1–2 Al Talaba

Al Talaba beat Al Karkh 2-1 in Iraqi League on January 6, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Karkh Stadium in Bagdad.