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Al Karkh vs Al-Qasim — Iraqi League 2020

Al Karkh
Al Karkh
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
4/8/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 23Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Al Karkh43%
×Draw28%
Al-Qasim29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karkh
1.27
Al-Qasim
0.99

Al Karkh creates 28% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 109 away

creates per match

Al Karkh
1.05
Al-Qasim
0.85

allows per match

Al Karkh
1.14
Al-Qasim
1.48

finishing

Al Karkh+0.00on par
Al-Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karkh ↓

Al-Qasim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Karkh or draw
71%
Al Karkh or Al-Qasim
72%
Draw or Al-Qasim
57%

Winning margin

Al Karkh wins by 2+
19%
Al-Qasim wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Karkh 1+ goals
72%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
36%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
14%
Al-Qasim 1+ goals
63%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
26%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Karkh (draw refunded)
60%
Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karkh at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

Al-Qasim away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.48 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karkh attack 1.05 + Al-Qasim defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.27

Al-Qasim attack 0.85 + Al Karkh defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Karkh scores more
43%
level
28%
Al-Qasim scores more
29%

Al Karkh at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Karkh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Karkh 2–1 Al-Qasim

Al Karkh beat Al-Qasim 2-1 in Iraqi League on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium in Bagdad.