Al Karkh 0–3 Al Najaf: Result & Stats

Al Karkh

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Al Najaf

3/1/2024

Iraqi League · Round 17Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Al Karkh34%

×Draw30%

Al Najaf36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al KarkhExpected goals in this matchAl Najaf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.05

Al Karkh

1.02

Al Najaf

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 112 away

1.05

creates per match

0.97

1.14

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Al Karkh

1.05

Al Najaf

0.97

allows per match

Al Karkh

1.14

Al Najaf

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Karkh+0.00on par

Al Najaf+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karkh ↓

Al Najaf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al Karkh or draw

64%

Al Karkh or Al Najaf

70%

Draw or Al Najaf

66%

Winning margin

Al Karkh wins by 2+

13%

Al Najaf wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al Karkh 1+ goals

64%

Al Karkh 2+ goals

27%

Al Karkh 3+ goals

8%

Al Najaf 1+ goals

65%

Al Najaf 2+ goals

28%

Al Najaf 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Al Karkh (draw refunded)

49%

Al Najaf (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karkh at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

Al Najaf away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karkh attack 1.05 + Al Najaf defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Al Najaf attack 0.97 + Al Karkh defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Karkh scores more

34%

level

30%

Al Najaf scores more

36%

Al Najaf at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Najaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff