Al Kahrabaa 0–0 Zakho: Result & Stats

Al Kahrabaa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zakho

11/16/2021

Iraqi League · Round 9Al Taji Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Al Kahrabaa36%

×Draw30%

Zakho35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al KahrabaaExpected goals in this matchZakho

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.04

Al Kahrabaa

1.06

Zakho

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 109 away

1.17

creates per match

1.02

1.07

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Al Kahrabaa

1.17

Zakho

1.02

allows per match

Al Kahrabaa

1.07

Zakho

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par

Zakho+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kahrabaa ↓

Zakho →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al Kahrabaa or draw

65%

Al Kahrabaa or Zakho

70%

Draw or Zakho

64%

Winning margin

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+

14%

Zakho wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals

65%

Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals

29%

Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals

9%

Zakho 1+ goals

65%

Zakho 2+ goals

28%

Zakho 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)

51%

Zakho (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 111 matches

Zakho away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.95 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.17 + Zakho defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Zakho attack 1.02 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Kahrabaa scores more

36%

level

30%

Zakho scores more

35%

Al Kahrabaa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Kahrabaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff