Al Kahrabaa vs Al Minaa Basra — Iraqi League 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 93+ matches
Al Kahrabaa44%
Al Minaa Basra28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Al Kahrabaa creates 32% more chances
Season form · 111 home / 93 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Al Kahrabaa ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 111 matches
Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 93 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Al Kahrabaa attack 1.17 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28
Al Minaa Basra attack 0.86 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Al Kahrabaa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Al Kahrabaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Shorta
Erbil
Al Zawra'a
Al Talaba
Al-Karma
Al Karkh
Zakho
Duhok
Naft
Newroz
Diyala
Mosul
GharrafAl Minaa Basra
Naft MaysanAl Kahrabaa
Baghdad
Al Najaf
Newroz
Al-Qasim
Naft Al-Janoob
Al Hudod
KarbalaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Al Kahrabaa host Al Minaa Basra on Sunday, 16 January 2022 at 13:30. The match is part of the Iraqi League 2020/2021 season.
Iraqi League: Al Kahrabaa 1–0 Al Minaa Basra
Al Kahrabaa beat Al Minaa Basra 1-0 in Iraqi League on January 16, 2022.
The match was played at Karbala Stadium in Karbala.