Al Jeel vs Al Khaleej Saihat — Division 1 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 60+ matches
Al Jeel30%
Al Khaleej Saihat42%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Al Khaleej Saihat creates 22% more chances
Season form · 60 home / 60 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Al Jeel ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Al Jeel at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 60 matches
Al Khaleej Saihat away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 60 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Al Jeel attack 1.00 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08
Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.22 + Al Jeel defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Al Khaleej Saihat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Al Khaleej Saihat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Abha
Al Diriyah
Al Ula
Al-Faisaly FC
Al Orubah
Al Jabalain
Al-Raed
Al Zulfi
Al Taee
Al Bukayriyah
Al Anwar
Al Wehda Club
Jeddah Club
Al-Adalah
Al Jandal
Al Baten
Al Arabi SC
Al JubailIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Al Jeel host Al Khaleej Saihat on Wednesday, 29 August 2018 at 15:45. The match is part of the Division 1 2018/2019 season.
Division 1: Al Jeel 0–0 Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Jeel and Al Khaleej Saihat drew 0-0 in Division 1 on August 29, 2018.
The match was played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium (Al-Hasa).