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Al-Ittihad vs Alittihad Misurata — Premier League 2019

Al-Ittihad
Al-Ittihad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alittihad Misurata
Alittihad Misurata
6/2/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Al-Ittihad50%
×Draw30%
Alittihad Misurata21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ittihad
1.26
Alittihad Misurata
0.70

Al-Ittihad creates 80% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 63 away

creates per match

Al-Ittihad
1.39
Alittihad Misurata
0.84

allows per match

Al-Ittihad
0.57
Alittihad Misurata
1.14

finishing

Al-Ittihad+0.00on par
Alittihad Misurata+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad ↓

Alittihad Misurata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad or draw
79%
Al-Ittihad or Alittihad Misurata
70%
Draw or Alittihad Misurata
50%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad wins by 2+
23%
Alittihad Misurata wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad 1+ goals
72%
Al-Ittihad 2+ goals
36%
Al-Ittihad 3+ goals
13%
Alittihad Misurata 1+ goals
50%
Alittihad Misurata 2+ goals
16%
Alittihad Misurata 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad (draw refunded)
71%
Alittihad Misurata (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.57 · 70 matches

Alittihad Misurata away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.14 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad attack 1.39 + Alittihad Misurata defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Alittihad Misurata attack 0.84 + Al-Ittihad defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Ittihad scores more
50%
level
30%
Alittihad Misurata scores more
21%

Al-Ittihad at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Ittihad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al-Ittihad 0–0 Alittihad Misurata

Al-Ittihad and Alittihad Misurata drew 0-0 in Premier League on June 2, 2023.