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Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Dhamk — Pro League 2018

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dhamk
Dhamk
11/4/2021Pro LeaguePro League · Round 11Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC64%
×Draw20%
Dhamk16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.13
Dhamk
0.97

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 120% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 111 away

creates per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.45
Dhamk
1.06

allows per match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.88
Dhamk
1.80

finishing

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par
Dhamk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hilal Saudi FC ↓

Dhamk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Al-Hilal Saudi FC or draw
84%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Dhamk
80%
Draw or Dhamk
36%

Winning margin

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
40%
Dhamk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
88%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
63%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
35%
Dhamk 1+ goals
62%
Dhamk 2+ goals
25%
Dhamk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
80%
Dhamk (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.88 · 126 matches

Dhamk away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.80 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.45 + Dhamk defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.13

Dhamk attack 1.06 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
64%
level
20%
Dhamk scores more
16%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Dhamk

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Dhamk 2-0 in Pro League on November 4, 2021.

The match was played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Riyadh.