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Al Hilal Port Sudan vs Al Ahli Khartoum — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
FT
0 – 2
Al Ahli Khartoum
Al Ahli Khartoum
2/6/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 8Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan41%
×Draw31%
Al Ahli Khartoum28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.11
Al Ahli Khartoum
0.85

Al Hilal Port Sudan creates 31% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 81 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.07
Al Ahli Khartoum
0.73

allows per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.98
Al Ahli Khartoum
1.16

finishing

Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par
Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Port Sudan ↓

Al Ahli Khartoum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Hilal Port Sudan or draw
72%
Al Hilal Port Sudan or Al Ahli Khartoum
69%
Draw or Al Ahli Khartoum
59%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
17%
Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
67%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
30%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
10%
Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals
57%
Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals
21%
Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
60%
Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Port Sudan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Al Ahli Khartoum away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.07 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 0.73 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
41%
level
31%
Al Ahli Khartoum scores more
28%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal Port Sudan vs Al Ahli Khartoum

Al Ahli Khartoum beat Al Hilal Port Sudan 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.