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Al Hilal Omdurman vs Al Hilal Kadougli — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
FT
2 – 0
Al Hilal Kadougli
Al Hilal Kadougli
12/9/2018Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 3Al-Hilal Stadium (Omdurman (Umm Durman))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman71%
×Draw19%
Al Hilal Kadougli10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Omdurman
2.04
Al Hilal Kadougli
0.59

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 246% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 43 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
2.53
Al Hilal Kadougli
0.79

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
0.39
Al Hilal Kadougli
1.56

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par
Al Hilal Kadougli+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Al Hilal Kadougli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw
90%
Al Hilal Omdurman or Al Hilal Kadougli
81%
Draw or Al Hilal Kadougli
29%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
46%
Al Hilal Kadougli wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
87%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
60%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
33%
Al Hilal Kadougli 1+ goals
45%
Al Hilal Kadougli 2+ goals
12%
Al Hilal Kadougli 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
88%
Al Hilal Kadougli (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.39 · 77 matches

Al Hilal Kadougli away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.53 + Al Hilal Kadougli defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.04

Al Hilal Kadougli attack 0.79 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
71%
level
19%
Al Hilal Kadougli scores more
10%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal Omdurman vs Al Hilal Kadougli

Al Hilal Omdurman beat Al Hilal Kadougli 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on December 9, 2018.

The match was played at Al-Hilal Stadium (Omdurman (Umm Durman)).