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Al Hala vs Al Riffa — Premier League 2019

Al Hala
Al Hala
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Al Riffa
Al Riffa
3/13/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Madinat 'Isa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Al Hala22%
×Draw24%
Al Riffa54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hala
0.96
Al Riffa
1.67

Al Riffa creates 74% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 71 away

creates per match

Al Hala
0.95
Al Riffa
1.82

allows per match

Al Hala
1.52
Al Riffa
0.97

finishing

Al Hala+0.00on par
Al Riffa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hala ↓

Al Riffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Hala or draw
46%
Al Hala or Al Riffa
76%
Draw or Al Riffa
78%

Winning margin

Al Hala wins by 2+
7%
Al Riffa wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Al Hala 1+ goals
62%
Al Hala 2+ goals
25%
Al Hala 3+ goals
7%
Al Riffa 1+ goals
81%
Al Riffa 2+ goals
50%
Al Riffa 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Al Hala (draw refunded)
29%
Al Riffa (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hala at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

Al Riffa away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hala attack 0.95 + Al Riffa defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Al Riffa attack 1.82 + Al Hala defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al Hala scores more
22%
level
24%
Al Riffa scores more
54%

Al Riffa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al Riffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Hala 2–3 Al Riffa

Al Riffa beat Al Hala 3-2 in Premier League on March 13, 2020.

The match was played at Madinat 'Isa Stadium in Manama.