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Al Hala vs Al Ahli — Premier League 2019

Al Hala
Al Hala
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al Ahli
Al Ahli
2/29/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Al Hala34%
×Draw27%
Al Ahli39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hala
1.23
Al Ahli
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 69 away

creates per match

Al Hala
0.95
Al Ahli
1.17

allows per match

Al Hala
1.52
Al Ahli
1.51

finishing

Al Hala+0.00on par
Al Ahli+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hala ↓

Al Ahli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Hala or draw
61%
Al Hala or Al Ahli
73%
Draw or Al Ahli
66%

Winning margin

Al Hala wins by 2+
15%
Al Ahli wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al Hala 1+ goals
71%
Al Hala 2+ goals
35%
Al Hala 3+ goals
13%
Al Ahli 1+ goals
74%
Al Ahli 2+ goals
39%
Al Ahli 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Hala (draw refunded)
46%
Al Ahli (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hala at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

Al Ahli away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.51 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hala attack 0.95 + Al Ahli defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al Ahli attack 1.17 + Al Hala defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Hala scores more
34%
level
27%
Al Ahli scores more
39%

Al Ahli at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Ahli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Hala 1 – 2 Al Ahli

Al Ahli beat Al Hala 2-1 in Premier League on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.