Al-Fayha 0–1 Al-Nassr: Result & Stats

Al-Fayha

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Nassr

Cristiano Ronaldo 81'

2/14/2024

AFC Champions League · Round of 16Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al-Fayha37%

×Draw26%

Al-Nassr37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-FayhaExpected goals in this matchAl-Nassr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

Al-Fayha

1.35

Al-Nassr

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 24 away

1.75

creates per match

1.46

1.25

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Al-Fayha

1.75

Al-Nassr

1.46

allows per match

Al-Fayha

1.25

Al-Nassr

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Fayha+0.00on par

Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fayha ↓

Al-Nassr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Al-Fayha or draw

63%

Al-Fayha or Al-Nassr

74%

Draw or Al-Nassr

63%

Winning margin

Al-Fayha wins by 2+

17%

Al-Nassr wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Al-Fayha 1+ goals

74%

Al-Fayha 2+ goals

39%

Al-Fayha 3+ goals

15%

Al-Nassr 1+ goals

74%

Al-Nassr 2+ goals

39%

Al-Nassr 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al-Fayha (draw refunded)

50%

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fayha at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Al-Nassr away — creates 1.46, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fayha attack 1.75 + Al-Nassr defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.35

Al-Nassr attack 1.46 + Al-Fayha defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al-Fayha scores more

37%

level

26%

Al-Nassr scores more

37%

Al-Fayha at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al-Fayha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

M. Brozović

Al-Nassr · M

9.0

Match Events

37'

Abdullah Alkhaibari

58'

A. Sabiri← Rakan Kaabi

58'

H. Onyekuru← Sultan Mandash

75'

Khalid Kaabi← A. Nwakaeme

77'

Hussain Al-Showaish

81'

Cristiano Ronaldo↳ M. Brozović

82'

Abdelhamid Sabiri

83'

Sami Al Naji← Otávio

84'

Muhannad Al Qaydhi← Nawaf Al Harthi

84'

Osama Al Khalaf← Mohammed Al Baqawi

85'

Raghid Najjar

89'

Abdulaziz Al Elewai← Aiman Yahya

90+4'

Abdulmajeed Al Sulayhim← M. Brozović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-FayhaAl-Nassr

Overview

23%Possession77%

2Total Shots14

2Corners11

10Fouls2

Shots

2Total Shots14

0On Target3

1Off Target6

1Blocked5

0Inside Box11

2Outside Box3

Passing

23%Possession77%

233Total Passes756

143Accurate Passes658

61%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls2

2Yellow Cards2

6Offsides3