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Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab — Pro League 2018

Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Shabab
Al Shabab
12/15/2023Pro LeaguePro League · Round 17Al Fateh Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Al-Fateh37%
×Draw25%
Al Shabab38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Fateh
1.46
Al Shabab
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 127 away

creates per match

Al-Fateh
1.59
Al Shabab
1.46

allows per match

Al-Fateh
1.52
Al Shabab
1.32

finishing

Al-Fateh+0.00on par
Al Shabab+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fateh ↓

Al Shabab →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al-Fateh or draw
62%
Al-Fateh or Al Shabab
75%
Draw or Al Shabab
63%

Winning margin

Al-Fateh wins by 2+
17%
Al Shabab wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al-Fateh 1+ goals
77%
Al-Fateh 2+ goals
43%
Al-Fateh 3+ goals
18%
Al Shabab 1+ goals
77%
Al Shabab 2+ goals
44%
Al Shabab 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Al-Fateh (draw refunded)
49%
Al Shabab (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fateh at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.52 · 126 matches

Al Shabab away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.32 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fateh attack 1.59 + Al Shabab defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Al Shabab attack 1.46 + Al-Fateh defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al-Fateh scores more
37%
level
25%
Al Shabab scores more
38%

Al Shabab at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Shabab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab

Al-Fateh and Al Shabab drew 1-1 in Pro League on December 15, 2023.

The match was played at Al Fateh Club Stadium in Al-Hasa.