Al Diwaniya 0–0 Naft Al-Wasat: Result & Stats

Al Diwaniya

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Naft Al-Wasat

2/9/2021

Iraqi League · Round 18Al Diwaniya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Al Diwaniya30%

×Draw30%

Naft Al-Wasat40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al DiwaniyaExpected goals in this matchNaft Al-Wasat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.14

Al Diwaniya

0.93

Naft Al-Wasat

1.14

Naft Al-Wasat creates 23% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 73 away

0.71

creates per match

0.96

1.31

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Al Diwaniya

0.71

Naft Al-Wasat

0.96

allows per match

Al Diwaniya

1.31

Naft Al-Wasat

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Diwaniya+0.00on par

Naft Al-Wasat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Diwaniya ↓

Naft Al-Wasat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al Diwaniya or draw

60%

Al Diwaniya or Naft Al-Wasat

70%

Draw or Naft Al-Wasat

70%

Winning margin

Al Diwaniya wins by 2+

10%

Naft Al-Wasat wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Al Diwaniya 1+ goals

61%

Al Diwaniya 2+ goals

24%

Al Diwaniya 3+ goals

7%

Naft Al-Wasat 1+ goals

68%

Naft Al-Wasat 2+ goals

32%

Naft Al-Wasat 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al Diwaniya (draw refunded)

42%

Naft Al-Wasat (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Diwaniya at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.31 · 52 matches

Naft Al-Wasat away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Diwaniya attack 0.71 + Naft Al-Wasat defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.93

Naft Al-Wasat attack 0.96 + Al Diwaniya defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Diwaniya scores more

30%

level

30%

Naft Al-Wasat scores more

40%

Naft Al-Wasat at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Naft Al-Wasat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff