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Al Bukayriyah vs Al-Faisaly FC — Division 1 2018

Al Bukayriyah
Al Bukayriyah
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
10/3/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 7Al-Amal Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Al Bukayriyah36%
×Draw27%
Al-Faisaly FC37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Bukayriyah
1.24
Al-Faisaly FC
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 68 away

creates per match

Al Bukayriyah
1.30
Al-Faisaly FC
1.47

allows per match

Al Bukayriyah
1.06
Al-Faisaly FC
1.18

finishing

Al Bukayriyah+0.00on par
Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Bukayriyah ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Bukayriyah or draw
63%
Al Bukayriyah or Al-Faisaly FC
73%
Draw or Al-Faisaly FC
64%

Winning margin

Al Bukayriyah wins by 2+
15%
Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Bukayriyah 1+ goals
71%
Al Bukayriyah 2+ goals
35%
Al Bukayriyah 3+ goals
13%
Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
72%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
36%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Bukayriyah (draw refunded)
49%
Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Bukayriyah at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.06 · 86 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Bukayriyah attack 1.30 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.24

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.47 + Al Bukayriyah defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Bukayriyah scores more
36%
level
27%
Al-Faisaly FC scores more
37%

Al-Faisaly FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al-Faisaly FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Bukayriyah 0–0 Al-Faisaly FC

Al Bukayriyah and Al-Faisaly FC drew 0-0 in Division 1 on October 3, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Amal Club Stadium in Al Bukayriyah.