Al Baten 1–3 Al-Raed: Result & Stats | Pro League

Al Baten

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Al-Raed

12/1/2018

Pro League · Round 11Al-Batin Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Al Baten37%

×Draw25%

Al-Raed38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al BatenExpected goals in this matchAl-Raed

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.47

Al Baten

1.46

Al-Raed

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 108 away

1.23

creates per match

1.35

1.58

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Al Baten

1.23

Al-Raed

1.35

allows per match

Al Baten

1.58

Al-Raed

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Baten+0.00on par

Al-Raed+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Baten ↓

Al-Raed →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al Baten or draw

62%

Al Baten or Al-Raed

75%

Draw or Al-Raed

63%

Winning margin

Al Baten wins by 2+

18%

Al-Raed wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Al Baten 1+ goals

77%

Al Baten 2+ goals

43%

Al Baten 3+ goals

18%

Al-Raed 1+ goals

77%

Al-Raed 2+ goals

43%

Al-Raed 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Al Baten (draw refunded)

50%

Al-Raed (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Baten at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.58 · 60 matches

Al-Raed away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.69 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Baten attack 1.23 + Al-Raed defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Al-Raed attack 1.35 + Al Baten defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Baten scores more

37%

level

25%

Al-Raed scores more

38%

Al-Raed at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al-Raed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff