Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Arabi vs Kazma — Premier League 2019

Al Arabi
Al Arabi
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kazma
Kazma
12/7/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Thamir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Al Arabi47%
×Draw25%
Kazma28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Arabi
1.56
Kazma
1.14

Al Arabi creates 37% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 83 away

creates per match

Al Arabi
1.76
Kazma
1.34

allows per match

Al Arabi
0.94
Kazma
1.37

finishing

Al Arabi+0.00on par
Kazma+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi ↓

Kazma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Arabi or draw
72%
Al Arabi or Kazma
75%
Draw or Kazma
53%

Winning margin

Al Arabi wins by 2+
24%
Kazma wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Arabi 1+ goals
79%
Al Arabi 2+ goals
46%
Al Arabi 3+ goals
21%
Kazma 1+ goals
68%
Kazma 2+ goals
32%
Kazma 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi (draw refunded)
63%
Kazma (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.94 · 86 matches

Kazma away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi attack 1.76 + Kazma defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kazma attack 1.34 + Al Arabi defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Arabi scores more
47%
level
25%
Kazma scores more
28%

Al Arabi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Arabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Arabi 4 – 0 Kazma

Al Arabi beat Kazma 4-0 in Premier League on December 7, 2023.

The match was played at Thamir Stadium in Kuwait City.