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Al Arabi SC vs Al-Faisaly FC — Division 1 2018

Al Arabi SC
Al Arabi SC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
12/6/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 12Department of Education Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Al Arabi SC35%
×Draw25%
Al-Faisaly FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Arabi SC
1.34
Al-Faisaly FC
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Al Arabi SC
1.51
Al-Faisaly FC
1.47

allows per match

Al Arabi SC
1.44
Al-Faisaly FC
1.18

finishing

Al Arabi SC+0.00on par
Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi SC ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al Arabi SC or draw
60%
Al Arabi SC or Al-Faisaly FC
75%
Draw or Al-Faisaly FC
65%

Winning margin

Al Arabi SC wins by 2+
15%
Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Al Arabi SC 1+ goals
74%
Al Arabi SC 2+ goals
39%
Al Arabi SC 3+ goals
15%
Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
77%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
43%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)
46%
Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi SC attack 1.51 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.34

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.47 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Arabi SC scores more
35%
level
25%
Al-Faisaly FC scores more
40%

Al-Faisaly FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al-Faisaly FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Arabi SC 3–0 Al-Faisaly FC

Al Arabi SC beat Al-Faisaly FC 3-0 in Division 1 on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Department of Education Stadium in Unaizah.