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Al Ansar vs Jwaaya FC — Premier League 2025

Premier LeaguePremier League·2025📍Beirut Municipal Stadium
Al Ansar
Al Ansar
Preview
18:30
Jwaaya FC
Jwaaya FC
Date
Jul 16, 2026, 6:30 PM
Tournament
Premier League · Championship Round - 2
Venue
Beirut Municipal Stadium, Beirut
55%
Al Ansar
model favours
55%23%22%

75% of Jwaaya FC’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Ansar55%
×Draw23%
Jwaaya FC22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ansar
1.81
Jwaaya FC
1.07

Al Ansar creates 69% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Al Ansar
2.33
Jwaaya FC
1.14

allows per match

Al Ansar
1.00
Jwaaya FC
1.29

finishing

Al Ansar+0.00on par
Jwaaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ansar ↓

Jwaaya FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Ansar or draw
78%
Al Ansar or Jwaaya FC
77%
Draw or Jwaaya FC
45%

Winning margin

Al Ansar wins by 2+
31%
Jwaaya FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Ansar 1+ goals
84%
Al Ansar 2+ goals
54%
Al Ansar 3+ goals
27%
Jwaaya FC 1+ goals
66%
Jwaaya FC 2+ goals
29%
Jwaaya FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Ansar (draw refunded)
71%
Jwaaya FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ansar at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Jwaaya FC away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ansar attack 2.33 + Jwaaya FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.81

Jwaaya FC attack 1.14 + Al Ansar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Ansar scores more
55%
level
23%
Jwaaya FC scores more
22%

Al Ansar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Ansar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Al Ansar are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Al Ansar have scored in 13 games running
  • Both teams score in 85% of Al Ansar’s matches
  • 73% of Jwaaya FC’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Jwaaya FC score first in only 33% of matches
  • Al Ansar score first in only 31% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ansar
DWWWW
FC
DDDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Al Ansar host Jwaaya FC

July 16, 2026: Al Ansar take on Jwaaya FC in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Al Ansar host Jwaaya FC at Beirut Municipal Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.