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Al-Akhdar vs Darnes — Premier League 2019

Al-Akhdar
Al-Akhdar
FT
2 – 0
Darnes
Darnes
5/22/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Al-Akhdar56%
×Draw24%
Darnes20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Akhdar
1.69
Darnes
0.90

Al-Akhdar creates 88% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 37 away

creates per match

Al-Akhdar
1.68
Darnes
1.05

allows per match

Al-Akhdar
0.74
Darnes
1.70

finishing

Al-Akhdar+0.00on par
Darnes+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Akhdar ↓

Darnes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al-Akhdar or draw
80%
Al-Akhdar or Darnes
76%
Draw or Darnes
44%

Winning margin

Al-Akhdar wins by 2+
31%
Darnes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al-Akhdar 1+ goals
82%
Al-Akhdar 2+ goals
50%
Al-Akhdar 3+ goals
24%
Darnes 1+ goals
59%
Darnes 2+ goals
23%
Darnes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al-Akhdar (draw refunded)
74%
Darnes (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Akhdar at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.74 · 68 matches

Darnes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Akhdar attack 1.68 + Darnes defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

Darnes attack 1.05 + Al-Akhdar defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al-Akhdar scores more
56%
level
24%
Darnes scores more
20%

Al-Akhdar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al-Akhdar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al-Akhdar 2–0 Darnes

Al-Akhdar beat Darnes 2-0 in Premier League on May 22, 2021.