Al-Ain 1–1 Al-Faisaly FC: Result & Stats

Al-Ain

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Al-Faisaly FC

3/5/2021

Pro League · Round 22King Saud Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Ain34%

×Draw24%

Al-Faisaly FC42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-AinExpected goals in this matchAl-Faisaly FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.63

Al-Ain

1.46

Al-Faisaly FC

1.63

Al-Faisaly FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

1.40

creates per match

1.12

2.13

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Al-Ain

1.40

Al-Faisaly FC

1.12

allows per match

Al-Ain

2.13

Al-Faisaly FC

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ain+0.00on par

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ain ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al-Ain or draw

58%

Al-Ain or Al-Faisaly FC

76%

Draw or Al-Faisaly FC

66%

Winning margin

Al-Ain wins by 2+

16%

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Al-Ain 1+ goals

77%

Al-Ain 2+ goals

43%

Al-Ain 3+ goals

18%

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals

80%

Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals

48%

Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Al-Ain (draw refunded)

45%

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ain at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ain attack 1.40 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.12 + Al-Ain defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al-Ain scores more

34%

level

24%

Al-Faisaly FC scores more

42%

Al-Faisaly FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al-Faisaly FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff