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Al Ahli Khartoum vs Alamal Atbara — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Ahli Khartoum
Al Ahli Khartoum
FT
0 – 2
Alamal Atbara
Alamal Atbara
12/10/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 15Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Al Ahli Khartoum41%
×Draw29%
Alamal Atbara29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.19
Alamal Atbara
0.95

Al Ahli Khartoum creates 25% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 86 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.14
Alamal Atbara
0.90

allows per match

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.00
Alamal Atbara
1.24

finishing

Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par
Alamal Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Khartoum ↓

Alamal Atbara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Ahli Khartoum or draw
71%
Al Ahli Khartoum or Alamal Atbara
71%
Draw or Alamal Atbara
59%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+
18%
Alamal Atbara wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals
70%
Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals
33%
Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals
12%
Alamal Atbara 1+ goals
61%
Alamal Atbara 2+ goals
25%
Alamal Atbara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)
59%
Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Khartoum at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 81 matches

Alamal Atbara away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 1.14 + Alamal Atbara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Alamal Atbara attack 0.90 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Ahli Khartoum scores more
41%
level
29%
Alamal Atbara scores more
29%

Al Ahli Khartoum at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Ahli Khartoum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Ahli Khartoum 0–2 Alamal Atbara

Alamal Atbara beat Al Ahli Khartoum 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on December 10, 2019.

The match was played at Al-Hilal Stadium in Umm Durman.