Al Ahli Benghazi 1–0 Al Sadaqa: Result & Stats

Al Ahli Benghazi

FT

1 – 0

Al Sadaqa

3/3/2022

Premier League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Al Ahli Benghazi58%

×Draw26%

Al Sadaqa16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Ahli BenghaziExpected goals in this matchAl Sadaqa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.67

Al Ahli Benghazi

1.54

Al Sadaqa

0.67

Al Ahli Benghazi creates 130% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 58 away

1.78

creates per match

0.66

0.68

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Al Ahli Benghazi

1.78

Al Sadaqa

0.66

allows per match

Al Ahli Benghazi

0.68

Al Sadaqa

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahli Benghazi+0.00on par

Al Sadaqa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Benghazi ↓

Al Sadaqa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Ahli Benghazi or draw

84%

Al Ahli Benghazi or Al Sadaqa

74%

Draw or Al Sadaqa

42%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Benghazi wins by 2+

31%

Al Sadaqa wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al Ahli Benghazi 1+ goals

79%

Al Ahli Benghazi 2+ goals

45%

Al Ahli Benghazi 3+ goals

20%

Al Sadaqa 1+ goals

49%

Al Sadaqa 2+ goals

15%

Al Sadaqa 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Benghazi (draw refunded)

78%

Al Sadaqa (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Benghazi at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.68 · 69 matches

Al Sadaqa away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Benghazi attack 1.78 + Al Sadaqa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Al Sadaqa attack 0.66 + Al Ahli Benghazi defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al Ahli Benghazi scores more

58%

level

26%

Al Sadaqa scores more

16%

Al Ahli Benghazi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al Ahli Benghazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff