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Akwa United vs Kano Pillars — NPFL 2019

Akwa United
Akwa United
CANC
15:00
Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
5/17/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 36Godswill Akpabio International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Akwa United60%
×Draw25%
Kano Pillars15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa United
1.58
Kano Pillars
0.63

Akwa United creates 151% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 121 away

creates per match

Akwa United
1.62
Kano Pillars
0.64

allows per match

Akwa United
0.61
Kano Pillars
1.54

finishing

Akwa United+0.00on par
Kano Pillars+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa United ↓

Kano Pillars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Akwa United or draw
85%
Akwa United or Kano Pillars
75%
Draw or Kano Pillars
40%

Winning margin

Akwa United wins by 2+
33%
Kano Pillars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Akwa United 1+ goals
79%
Akwa United 2+ goals
47%
Akwa United 3+ goals
21%
Kano Pillars 1+ goals
47%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
13%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Akwa United (draw refunded)
80%
Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

Kano Pillars away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.54 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa United attack 1.62 + Kano Pillars defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Kano Pillars attack 0.64 + Akwa United defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Akwa United scores more
60%
level
25%
Kano Pillars scores more
15%

Akwa United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Akwa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akwa United vs Kano Pillars — Match Preview

Akwa United face Kano Pillars on May 17, 2020 in this NPFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Akwa United host Kano Pillars at Godswill Akpabio International Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.