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Akwa Starlets vs Rivers United — NPFL 2019

Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
FT
2 – 1
Rivers United
Rivers United
1/12/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 14Uyo Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Akwa Starlets49%
×Draw28%
Rivers United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa Starlets
1.35
Rivers United
0.82

Akwa Starlets creates 65% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 131 away

creates per match

Akwa Starlets
1.48
Rivers United
0.72

allows per match

Akwa Starlets
0.92
Rivers United
1.22

finishing

Akwa Starlets+0.00on par
Rivers United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa Starlets ↓

Rivers United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Akwa Starlets or draw
77%
Akwa Starlets or Rivers United
72%
Draw or Rivers United
51%

Winning margin

Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
24%
Rivers United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
74%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
39%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
15%
Rivers United 1+ goals
56%
Rivers United 2+ goals
20%
Rivers United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
68%
Rivers United (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa Starlets at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Rivers United away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa Starlets attack 1.48 + Rivers United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Rivers United attack 0.72 + Akwa Starlets defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Akwa Starlets scores more
49%
level
28%
Rivers United scores more
23%

Akwa Starlets at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Akwa Starlets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Akwa Starlets 2–1 Rivers United

Akwa Starlets beat Rivers United 2-1 in NPFL on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Uyo Township Stadium in Uyo.