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Akwa Starlets vs Akwa United — NPFL 2019

Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
FT
0 – 1
Akwa United
Akwa United
A. Orok 15'
12/22/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 10Uyo Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Akwa Starlets51%
×Draw28%
Akwa United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa Starlets
1.38
Akwa United
0.79

Akwa Starlets creates 75% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 111 away

creates per match

Akwa Starlets
1.48
Akwa United
0.66

allows per match

Akwa Starlets
0.92
Akwa United
1.28

finishing

Akwa Starlets+0.00on par
Akwa United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa Starlets ↓

Akwa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Akwa Starlets or draw
79%
Akwa Starlets or Akwa United
72%
Draw or Akwa United
49%

Winning margin

Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
25%
Akwa United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
75%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
40%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
16%
Akwa United 1+ goals
55%
Akwa United 2+ goals
19%
Akwa United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
70%
Akwa United (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa Starlets at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Akwa United away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa Starlets attack 1.48 + Akwa United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Akwa United attack 0.66 + Akwa Starlets defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Akwa Starlets scores more
51%
level
28%
Akwa United scores more
21%

Akwa Starlets at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Akwa Starlets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
A. Orok
29'
41'
63'
68'
M. Udoh← M. Udoh
68'
I. Ifeanyi← M. Chukwu
71'
71'
84'
M. Etim← M. Etim
86'
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Akwa Starlets 0–1 Akwa United

Akwa United beat Akwa Starlets 1-0 in NPFL on December 22, 2019.

Goals: A. Orok (15').

The match was played at Uyo Township Stadium in Uyo.