Akwa Starlets 2–1 Abia Warriors: Result & Stats

Akwa Starlets

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Abia Warriors

K. Udo 54'

A. Okon 49' (pen)

F. Abdullahi 90'

2/7/2021

NPFL · Round 9Godswill Akpabio International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Akwa Starlets54%

×Draw26%

Abia Warriors20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akwa StarletsExpected goals in this matchAbia Warriors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.82

Akwa Starlets

1.52

Abia Warriors

0.82

Akwa Starlets creates 85% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 128 away

1.48

creates per match

0.73

0.92

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Akwa Starlets

1.48

Abia Warriors

0.73

allows per match

Akwa Starlets

0.92

Abia Warriors

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akwa Starlets+0.00on par

Abia Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa Starlets ↓

Abia Warriors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Akwa Starlets or draw

80%

Akwa Starlets or Abia Warriors

74%

Draw or Abia Warriors

46%

Winning margin

Akwa Starlets wins by 2+

28%

Abia Warriors wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Akwa Starlets 1+ goals

78%

Akwa Starlets 2+ goals

45%

Akwa Starlets 3+ goals

20%

Abia Warriors 1+ goals

56%

Abia Warriors 2+ goals

20%

Abia Warriors 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)

73%

Abia Warriors (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa Starlets at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Abia Warriors away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa Starlets attack 1.48 + Abia Warriors defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Abia Warriors attack 0.73 + Akwa Starlets defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Akwa Starlets scores more

54%

level

26%

Abia Warriors scores more

20%

Akwa Starlets at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Akwa Starlets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

E. Charles

40'

B. Lukman

46'

O. Ojo

49'

A. OkonPenalty

52'

I. Harrison

54'

K. Udo

58'

A. Ekpe

85'

I. Harrison

85'

I. Harrison

90+3'

F. Odinaka

90'

F. Abdullahi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff