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Akwa Starlets vs Abia Warriors — NPFL 2019

Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
CANC
00:00
Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors
3/25/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 27Uyo Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Akwa Starlets54%
×Draw26%
Abia Warriors20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa Starlets
1.52
Abia Warriors
0.82

Akwa Starlets creates 85% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 128 away

creates per match

Akwa Starlets
1.48
Abia Warriors
0.73

allows per match

Akwa Starlets
0.92
Abia Warriors
1.55

finishing

Akwa Starlets+0.00on par
Abia Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa Starlets ↓

Abia Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Akwa Starlets or draw
80%
Akwa Starlets or Abia Warriors
74%
Draw or Abia Warriors
46%

Winning margin

Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
28%
Abia Warriors wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
78%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
45%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
20%
Abia Warriors 1+ goals
56%
Abia Warriors 2+ goals
20%
Abia Warriors 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
73%
Abia Warriors (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa Starlets at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Abia Warriors away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa Starlets attack 1.48 + Abia Warriors defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Abia Warriors attack 0.73 + Akwa Starlets defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Akwa Starlets scores more
54%
level
26%
Abia Warriors scores more
20%

Akwa Starlets at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Akwa Starlets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akwa Starlets vs Abia Warriors — Match Preview

Akwa Starlets face Abia Warriors on March 25, 2020 in this NPFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Akwa Starlets host Abia Warriors at Uyo Township Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.