Akron 1–1 Ska-khabarovsk: Result & Stats

Akron

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ska-khabarovsk

K. Giraev 68'

A. Batyutin 56'

3/6/2021

First League · Round 28Crystal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Akron45%

×Draw27%

Ska-khabarovsk28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkronExpected goals in this matchSka-khabarovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.01

Akron

1.38

Ska-khabarovsk

1.01

Akron creates 37% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 141 away

1.30

creates per match

1.08

0.93

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Akron

1.30

Ska-khabarovsk

1.08

allows per match

Akron

0.93

Ska-khabarovsk

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akron+0.00on par

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Akron or draw

72%

Akron or Ska-khabarovsk

73%

Draw or Ska-khabarovsk

55%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+

22%

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals

75%

Akron 2+ goals

40%

Akron 3+ goals

16%

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

64%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

27%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)

62%

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 74 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.30 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.08 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Akron scores more

45%

level

27%

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

28%

Akron at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Kirill Kolesnichenko

38'

Vladis-Emmerson Illoy-Ayyet

44'

V. Nikiforov← S. Georgievskiy

47'

50'

50'

56'

59'

V. Bragin← A. Batyutin

62'

D. Bidlovskiy← A. Geryugov

66'

K. Giraev← V. Nihaev

67'

G. Gogrichiani← D. Kvekveskiri

68'

K. Giraev

77'

Y. Pershin← D. Barkov

79'

G. Ferreyra← A. Bosov

85'

David Bidlovsky

87'

A. Maleev← N. Bezlikhotnov

88'

V. Pjanchenko← A. Delkin

90+2'

E. Nazarov← I. Kvekveskiri

Akron4-1-4-1

Ska-khabarovsk3-4-3

92

▼

Barkov

20

Kolesnich

72

⚽

▼

Batyutin

9

▼

Georgievs

24

Martusevi

33

▼

Kvekveski

90

▼

31

5

15

93

1

18

27

3

44

8

▼

Geryugov

90

▼

Delkin

61

▼

Bosov

99

▼

Nihaev

11

▼

Kvekveski

9

Mayrovich

Manager: V. Jăpălău

62'▲D. Bidlovskiy←▼A. Geryugov

66'▲K. Giraev←▼V. Nihaev

67'▲G. Gogrichiani←▼D. Kvekveskiri

79'▲G. Ferreyra←▼A. Bosov

88'▲V. Pjanchenko←▼A. Delkin

Akron substitutes

37Bidlovskiy7Giraev19Gogrichiani55Ferreyra5Pjanchenko13Sadykov22Emini23Prichinenko29Verkhunov66Zhestokov87Potapov88Sinitsyn

Manager: S. Yuran

44'▲V. Nikiforov←▼S. Georgievskiy

59'▲V. Bragin←▼A. Batyutin

77'▲Y. Pershin←▼D. Barkov

87'▲A. Maleev←▼N. Bezlikhotnov

90+2'▲E. Nazarov←▼I. Kvekveskiri

Ska-khabarovsk substitutes

10Nikiforov19Bragin30Pershin8Maleev77Nazarov48Taraduda50Sugrobov