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Akron vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2026

Akron
Akron
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
10/24/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Crystal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Akron41%
×Draw29%
FK Neftekhimik31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.23
FK Neftekhimik
1.02

Akron creates 21% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 122 away

creates per match

Akron
1.30
FK Neftekhimik
1.11

allows per match

Akron
0.93
FK Neftekhimik
1.16

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

FK Neftekhimik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Akron or draw
69%
Akron or FK Neftekhimik
71%
Draw or FK Neftekhimik
59%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
18%
FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
71%
Akron 2+ goals
35%
Akron 3+ goals
13%
FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
64%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
27%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
57%
FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 74 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.30 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.11 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Akron scores more
41%
level
29%
FK Neftekhimik scores more
31%

Akron at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Akron 3–4 FK Neftekhimik

FK Neftekhimik beat Akron 4-3 in First League on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Crystal Stadium in Zhigulevsk.