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Akron vs Baltika — First League 2018

Akron
Akron
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Baltika
Baltika
8/27/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Akron36%
×Draw28%
Baltika36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.15
Baltika
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 109 away

creates per match

Akron
1.30
Baltika
1.34

allows per match

Akron
0.93
Baltika
1.00

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Akron or draw
64%
Akron or Baltika
72%
Draw or Baltika
64%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
15%
Baltika wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
68%
Akron 2+ goals
32%
Akron 3+ goals
11%
Baltika 1+ goals
68%
Baltika 2+ goals
32%
Baltika 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
50%
Baltika (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 74 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.30 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Baltika attack 1.34 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Akron scores more
36%
level
28%
Baltika scores more
36%

Akron at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Akron 1–3 Baltika

Baltika beat Akron 3-1 in First League on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk in Zhigulyovsk.