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Akhmat vs Rubin — Premier League 2018

Akhmat
Akhmat
Preview
16:00
Rubin
Rubin
3/6/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Akhmat-Arena
Big match
42%
Akhmat
model favours
42%27%31%

Rubin have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Akhmat42%
×Draw27%
Rubin31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat
1.33
Rubin
1.11

Akhmat creates 20% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 105 away

creates per match

Akhmat
1.27
Rubin
1.02

allows per match

Akhmat
1.21
Rubin
1.39

finishing

Akhmat+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Akhmat or draw
69%
Akhmat or Rubin
73%
Draw or Rubin
58%

Winning margin

Akhmat wins by 2+
19%
Rubin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Akhmat 1+ goals
74%
Akhmat 2+ goals
38%
Akhmat 3+ goals
15%
Rubin 1+ goals
67%
Rubin 2+ goals
30%
Rubin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Akhmat (draw refunded)
57%
Rubin (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

Rubin away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.39 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat attack 1.27 + Rubin defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rubin attack 1.02 + Akhmat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Akhmat scores more
42%
level
27%
Rubin scores more
31%

Akhmat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Akhmat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Akhmat outscore their xG (1.6 vs 0.5 expected)
  • Rubin fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Akhmat
Direct / counter-attacking
Rubin
Direct / counter-attacking
42%Possession43%
72%Pass accuracy72%
13.4Shots9.9
0.47xGBiggest gap1.36
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AkhmatRubin

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Akhmat
1
Draws
7
Rubin
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 50%
0–13–32–00–22–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Akhmat
WDWWD
Rubin
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akhmat face Rubin (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Akhmat hosting Rubin. Match starts March 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Akhmat host Rubin at Akhmat-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.