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Akhmat vs FC Orenburg — Premier League 2018

Akhmat
Akhmat
Preview
15:00
FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
10/24/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Akhmat-Arena
Big match
48%
Akhmat
model favours
48%25%27%

FC Orenburg win just 16% against the top half (vs 43% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Akhmat48%
×Draw25%
FC Orenburg27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat
1.58
FC Orenburg
1.13

Akhmat creates 40% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 91 away

creates per match

Akhmat
1.27
FC Orenburg
1.05

allows per match

Akhmat
1.21
FC Orenburg
1.89

finishing

Akhmat+0.00on par
FC Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat ↓

FC Orenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Akhmat or draw
73%
Akhmat or FC Orenburg
75%
Draw or FC Orenburg
52%

Winning margin

Akhmat wins by 2+
25%
FC Orenburg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Akhmat 1+ goals
79%
Akhmat 2+ goals
47%
Akhmat 3+ goals
21%
FC Orenburg 1+ goals
68%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
31%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Akhmat (draw refunded)
64%
FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

FC Orenburg away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat attack 1.27 + FC Orenburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.58

FC Orenburg attack 1.05 + Akhmat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Akhmat scores more
48%
level
25%
FC Orenburg scores more
27%

Akhmat at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Akhmat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Akhmat play Direct / counter-attacking, FC Orenburg Attack-heavy
  • Akhmat outscore their xG (1.6 vs 0.5 expected)
  • FC Orenburg fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Akhmat
Direct / counter-attacking
FC Orenburg
Attack-heavy
42%Possession48%
72%Pass accuracy77%
13.4Shots14.2
0.47xGBiggest gap1.86
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AkhmatFC Orenburg

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Akhmat
3
Draws
3
FC Orenburg
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 40%
1–00–12–21–21–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Akhmat
WDWWD
Orenburg
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akhmat vs FC Orenburg — Match Preview

Akhmat face FC Orenburg on October 24, 2026 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Akhmat host FC Orenburg at Akhmat-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.