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Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar — Premier League 2018

Akhmat
Akhmat
Preview
15:00
FC Krasnodar
FC Krasnodar
5/15/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Akhmat-Arena
Big match
42%
FC Krasnodar
model favours
32%26%42%

When FC Krasnodar score first, they win 88% of the time

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Akhmat32%
×Draw26%
FC Krasnodar42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat
1.21
FC Krasnodar
1.41

FC Krasnodar creates 17% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 119 away

creates per match

Akhmat
1.27
FC Krasnodar
1.61

allows per match

Akhmat
1.21
FC Krasnodar
1.16

finishing

Akhmat+0.00on par
FC Krasnodar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat ↓

FC Krasnodar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Akhmat or draw
58%
Akhmat or FC Krasnodar
74%
Draw or FC Krasnodar
68%

Winning margin

Akhmat wins by 2+
13%
FC Krasnodar wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Akhmat 1+ goals
70%
Akhmat 2+ goals
34%
Akhmat 3+ goals
12%
FC Krasnodar 1+ goals
76%
FC Krasnodar 2+ goals
41%
FC Krasnodar 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Akhmat (draw refunded)
44%
FC Krasnodar (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

FC Krasnodar away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.16 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat attack 1.27 + FC Krasnodar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

FC Krasnodar attack 1.61 + Akhmat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Akhmat scores more
32%
level
26%
FC Krasnodar scores more
42%

FC Krasnodar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Krasnodar win just 37% against the top half (vs 66% against the bottom)
  • Style contrast — Akhmat play Direct / counter-attacking, FC Krasnodar Possession-dominant
  • Akhmat outscore their xG (1.6 vs 0.5 expected)
  • 25% of FC Krasnodar’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • 34% of FC Krasnodar’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Akhmat
Direct / counter-attacking
FC Krasnodar
Possession-dominant
42%Possession59%
72%Pass accuracy80%
13.4Shots15.4
0.47xGBiggest gap1.87
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AkhmatFC Krasnodar

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Akhmat
3
Draws
4
FC Krasnodar
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%
0–10–21–32–13–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Akhmat
WDWWD
Krasnodar
DWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akhmat face FC Krasnodar (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Akhmat hosting FC Krasnodar. Match starts May 15, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Akhmat host FC Krasnodar at Akhmat-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.