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Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar — Cup 2019

Akhmat
Akhmat
Preview
16:00
FC Krasnodar
FC Krasnodar
11/24/2026CupCup · Group Stage - 6Akhmat-Arena
Big match
43%
Akhmat
model favours
43%24%33%

When FC Krasnodar score first, they win 88% of the time

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Akhmat43%
×Draw24%
FC Krasnodar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat
1.63
FC Krasnodar
1.39

Akhmat creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

creates per match

Akhmat
1.82
FC Krasnodar
1.48

allows per match

Akhmat
1.29
FC Krasnodar
1.43

finishing

Akhmat+0.00on par
FC Krasnodar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat ↓

FC Krasnodar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Akhmat or draw
67%
Akhmat or FC Krasnodar
76%
Draw or FC Krasnodar
57%

Winning margin

Akhmat wins by 2+
22%
FC Krasnodar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Akhmat 1+ goals
80%
Akhmat 2+ goals
48%
Akhmat 3+ goals
22%
FC Krasnodar 1+ goals
75%
FC Krasnodar 2+ goals
40%
FC Krasnodar 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Akhmat (draw refunded)
57%
FC Krasnodar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

FC Krasnodar away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat attack 1.82 + FC Krasnodar defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

FC Krasnodar attack 1.48 + Akhmat defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Akhmat scores more
43%
level
24%
FC Krasnodar scores more
33%

Akhmat at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Akhmat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 25% of FC Krasnodar’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • 34% of FC Krasnodar’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Akhmat
WDWWD
Krasnodar
DWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar — Match Preview

Akhmat face FC Krasnodar on November 24, 2026 in this Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Akhmat host FC Krasnodar at Akhmat-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.